“However, downside risks have increased since the previous forecast due mainly to recent declines in oil prices. Lower oil prices will negatively affect oil-producing economies like Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland and Labrador, which will only be partly offset by the positive effects of lower exchange rates and interest rates across all provinces. We have widened the forecast ranges for housing starts, MLS® sales and average MLS® prices to reflect these risks.”
Under CMHC’s base case scenario, housing starts are expected to decline by 1.0 per cent in 2015 relative to 2014; Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) sales are expected to remain unchanged, and the MLS® average price is expected to increase modestly by 1.5 per cent.
On an annual basis, housing starts are expected to range between 154,000 and 201,000 units in 2015, with a point forecast of 187,400 units. For 2016, housing starts are forecast to range from 148,000 units to 203,000 units, with a point forecast of 185,100 units.
MLS® sales are expected to range between 425,000 and 504,000 units in 2015, with a point forecast of 479,900 units. In 2016, resales are forecast to range from 410,000 units to 505,000 units, with a point forecast of 474,400 units.
The average MLS® price is forecast to be between $384,000 and $428,000 in 2015, with a point forecast of $414,200. For 2016, the average MLS® price is forecast to be between $388,000 and $438,000, with a point forecast of $420,900.